It’ll definitely be Todrick going home unless he delivers an amazing performance. I was surprised he actually survived last week but lightning won’t strike twice for him. The judges really aren’t liking him at all and I think the public is getting bored of him too.

The other guy will be Aaron Kelly. He has a decent voice but I can’t see him pulling more votes than Urban, who has the power of obsessive teenage girls and VFTW.com on his side.

I think it’ll take a complete meltdown performance for Urban AND a masterpiece from Kelly in order for Urban to be kicked off.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4Ju7OXXliQ

Lilly, Crystal, Katie and Siobhan are safe, no matter what their performance is. As the article said, Katelyn is most susceptible to an eventual upset. She needs to get voters and, as my pre-Hollywood favorite to make the top 4, I will be voting.

What is all the love for Didi. She has been horrible. I think Lacey, Paige and Didi are the next three to go. After that, I don’t know. Didi may upset Katelyn as far as making it to the tour.

Todrick and Tim need to go on the guys’ side.

This week should be easy: Lacey and Didi go home and if Didi can pull one out of her rear end or if it comes down to a battle of bad performances again, Paige goes home in the typical black contestant leaves, all else being equal Idol standard thing. Tim and Todrick go home.

We get down to 12 and then Didi/Paige and Alex leave giving us a neat 5 guys, 5 girls on tour.

Lilly, Crystal, Katie, Katelyn, Siobhan
Andrew, Michael, Casey, Aaron, Lee

That is your solid tour 10 and, frankly, the way things are going, it is tough to call who will be leaving any week after that. For the first time, given the performances so far, there is not a clear leader when you get to that top 10. It could be the greatest top 10 ever, as far as drama is concerned, because it could be decided each week

THE GUYS
1. Andrew Garcia – He has some haters, yes, but he also has a lot of really devoted fans– more-so than any other guy in the competition. Though his top 24 and 20 performances were just ‘decent’, think of other people that have been a part of the competition in the past that had breakout performances during the Top 16. After having to scrape by two weeks as an underdog with ‘decent’ performances, not to mention an elimination wish from Simon, David Cook came out and belted “Hello” in a style we had never seen it done. Kris Allen, after making it through to the Top 12 after his ‘decent’ “Man In The Mirror” performance, didn’t even truly wow us with his first few final performances. Then suddenly he bolts out with “Ain’t No Sunshine”, and then “Falling Slowly”, and then “Heartless”… Look who won the whole thing with both Kris and David. I have no doubt Andrew is following a similar pattern, especially since he, his wife, and Ryan all confirmed something ‘special’ and ‘totally new’ for the Top 16 show. If this performance is as amazing as everyone claims, and I once again have no doubt that it will be, then he’s a lock for a spot as high as the Top 3. He will most likely be the very last guy standing.

2. Lee Dewyze – This dude is easily the man who has shown the most growth throughout the first two weeks of the competition. While I agree that he is pitchy, he has a lot of time to work things like that out, especially since he most likely is getting the “rocker” vote this season. I think he’s trying to be more rock than he really is, though. It could hurt him later on, song-choice wise, but not so early in the competition. I could see him in the Top 5.

3. Casey James – Even though he shakily sang his way through “I Don’t Want To Be” last week, there is still without a doubt a great Southern Rock-style voice inside of Casey. He could be in trouble this week, I will admit, though if he pulls off another song as good as his first week performance of “Heaven”, then he has little to worry about.

4. Mike Lynche – I personally don’t like Mike’s neo-soul style, but I cannot deny that he is yet another lock for the Top 12. He has a great personality, and while I pretty much hated his rendition of “This Love”, his cover of “It’s a Man’s Man’s Man’s World” more than redeemed himself. Put this together with the fact that his backstory is great and he has one of the best personalities on the show thus far, and he is definitely in the Top 12.

5. Alex Lambert – Alex has an amazing tone to his voice, as shown in “Wonderful World”, and then in what I personally thought was a fantastic cover of “Everybody Knows” by John Legend. If he can simply get over his nerves, he could easily leap up to even the number one spot for the guys this year.

6. Aaron Kelly – While he may not be the most dynamic performer this season, nor the ‘prettiest’ for the teen girls, Aaron has two things I could think of that throw him into the Top 12. One: He’s a country singer. Two: He’s under 18. Alex is 19, which is still relatively young, however, and could steal the ‘teen’ vote because of it. I will say that if Aaron doesn’t embrace a nice and simple country-style song this week, he could be ousted by the next guy on this list.

7. Tim Urban – Let’s face it ladies: Tim is just not fit for American Idol. I will admit that he did vastly improve over his first week in the competition, but he doesn’t have a good enough voice. The only reason he would stay is through his looks… Which is unacceptable seeing the talent that is still with us out of the guys. I could see Tim making the Top 12 and becoming the “annoying” person of the year, kicking off a few old favorites before leaving himself. See: Sanjaya Malakar

8. Todrick Hall – Todrick does have a good voice, and he has made some fantastic runs– he just hasn’t done so RECENTLY. Pair that with his diva personality and you have a lose-lose situation. He could still make the Top 12, but to do so he’d need to sing a song straight through. Not only straight through, but he’d need to sing it well without over- or under-singing it. Looking at the current situation he is in, this seems near impossible.

THE GIRLS

1. Crystal Bowersox – She may be bound to just the folk-rock style, but that certainly doesn’t mean she’s bound to just songs originally sung by folk-rock singers. Crystal has a fantastic voice inside of her, and while her “Hand In My Pocket” was indeed a bit indulgent, her “Long As I See The Light” was something fantastic. At the moment Crystal is the major front-runner for the girls, and probably the front-runner of the whole competition. Like with Andrew, and like with the next girl on this list, she is a definite lock. She has the sympathy vote too at the moment for her recent diabetes scare… I see her in the Top 3.

2. Siobhan Magnus – This shouldn’t be all too surprising at all. Some love her, some hate her- and all of this surprisingly reminds me of Adam Lambert from last year. Absolutely NO ONE could deny that she has an awesome voice that could sing just about anything. The only reason she isn’t the number one girl on this list so far is because, in my opinion, Crystal has made the better song choices thus far. This could easily change next week in a heartbeat if she pulls out something that shows off all of her vocal stylings without trying all too hard, which I think she did a little with “Think”.

3. Lilly Scott – The thing I like about Lilly the most is that she is absolutely the most unique person hitting that Idol stage at the moment. She’s quite quirky, and she shows that in both her indie style and her “She’s singing THAT?” song choices. While I personally love the stuff that she has going on for her at the moment, she could do with some more well-known song choices to become more popular with the younger crowd as well.

4. Katelyn Epperly – Her “The Scientist” was too slow for my tastes, but she does have a good voice. I could see Katelyn being a pseudo-Coldplay/Natasha Bedingfield-type artist. That sounds weird at first, but I’m just reflecting off of her song choices thus far. The fact that she evolved from a nobody to a somebody in two weeks amazes me.

5. Paige Miles – No way does Paige have the best voice out of the girls (that spot rightfully belongs to Siobhan), but she fits the diva bill quite nicely, and unlike Todrick she actually IS a girl. Paige won’t make it far into the Top 12 if she keeps up her nervousness though, which has made it so that even her song choice from the Top 20, which should have been perfect for her voice in my opinion, fell a bit flat.

6. Didi Benami – Like with Aaron, I wouldn’t be surprised if Didi were to be ousted by the “cute but bad” person still in the game. Then again, Didi is kinda fitting the same bill as Lacey at the moment. She needs to really pick up what has so far been a boring and forgettable time with her throughout the competition in order to keep herself in the Top 12 for a while. The thing that puts her above Lacey for me is the fact that she has a bigger fan base.

7. Katie Stevens – Katie started out amazing during her first audition and just dwindled and dwindled downwards from there. “Feeling Good” was alright, but far too sharp and a bit of an ‘old’ song choice. “Put Your Records On” could’ve been a good choice, but for some reason it just wasn’t. She needs to pull a miracle out to make it into the Top 12, which isn’t entirely too hard to imagine considering that she really does have a great, powerful voice. If she makes a fantastic performance now in the Top 16, she will go far into the competition. I’m not saying Top 5 just yet, but Top 6 is pretty likely for her.

8. Lacey Brown – By far the most disappointing contestant out of all of the Top 16 left in the game for me. The only thing I could think of that is still keeping her there is the “Oh look she’s cute and not a blonde” vote. She has done some pretty well-versed songs in the past. Not saying she has the best voice, but they were well-versed and above ‘decent’. If she could just do something that will remind people of the ol’ unforgettable version of herself, she will be in the Top 12.

With the girls, based on the same information, Katelyn is in the #3 spot. She made as large of a leap as DeWyze did. Didi is on the same platform with Lilly, and Katie on the same level as Paige. Separating those two groups is Lacey.

WOW, that’s some group of 4 you’ve got going home next. If Didi were swaped for Llly, then it would be my preferred list, but I don’t think its going to happen that way. I think performances this week are going to be a major factor for 2/3 of them.

1. Crystal Bowersox: Right now, she’s the undisputed watercooler contestant of the season. I have my doubts as to her ability to be a viable pop artist in today’s musical climate (I can’t help but think Taylor Hicks 2.0), but Crystal will undoubtedly be safe here.

2. Siobhan Magnus: Despite being without a doubt the most polarizing contestant of the young season, Siobhan has amassed a passionate (some would say TOO passionate) army of followers that will carry her into to the Top 12 with ease. Where she goes from there is anyone’s guess…

3. Katelyn Epperly: More than anyone, I’m surprised that I have Katelyn here, as I originally thought of her as nothing more than cannon fodder. However, I may have greatly (to parrot both George W and Simon) misunderestimated her. Katelyn may end up being what I thought Didi would be, a fusion of the indie vibe of the “quirky girls” with a much more commercial look and sound. We may be looking at the dark horse here.

4. Katie Stevens: Yes, I know. Katie hasn’t exactly lived up to her billing as this season’s presumed front-runner yet. If I’m going to hammer both Andrew and Didi for not living up to the hype, why won’t I do it for Katie? Simply put, I think that Katie can obliterate all memories of her first two weeks if she just sticks to the teen pop script that the producers have written for her. If she does this, look out. Project: Katie will be back on in full force.

5. Paige Miles: Of all of the surprises so far this season, Paige might be the biggest. I thought for sure that the annual “diva” spot would be occupied by Ashley Rodriguez (or even Michelle Delamor). Paige being here is kind of stunning to me, particularly given that she really isn’t that much of a traditional R & B singer (which is actually refreshing). She fits this bill better than anyone else, though, so she should be safe.

6. Lilly Scott: Despite her just-short-of-great performance last week, I’m really pretty worried for Lilly. I’m afraid that the qualities that make me like her so much (her decidedly indie-rock vibe, chill personality and seeming indifference to what anyone thinks of her) may actually keep her from connecting with most of the “Idol” viewing audience. I hope that I’m wrong, but I fear that Lilly just may be too indie for “Idol.”

7. Didi Benami: As I’ve said ad nauseum, Didi is the female equivalent to Andrew Garcia. I’m just not sure that she has it in her to give the confident, blow-away performance that she needs right now. More importantly, I don’t think that the public has much good will left for her (breaking down and crying at every hint of criticism certainly hasn’t helped things), which may result in an early exit.

8. Lacey Brown: I don’t know why Lacey has lasted as long as she has this season (even VFTW finds her too boring), but it certainly hasn’t been on the strength of her performances. If there is any justice, she will be going home on Thursday, although I wouldn’t totally be shocked to see her last. She’s got the religious vote in Texas on her side (as does Tim Urban), which certainly doesn’t hurt.

GUYS

1. Casey James: Please. As if he’s going anywhere. He’s Southern, good-looking, has a bad-boy vibe and plays rock music. In other words, he’s Sawyer with a guitar, a.k.a.: 100% Grade A Cougar Bait. Right now, he’s my pick to win it all, even if he hasn’t been spectacular to this point.

2. Michael Lynche: Perhaps the most charismatic contestant of the bunch, Big Mike would have made it to the Top 12 even if he didn’t give a good (but not great) performance last week. The fact that he did ensured that he might be around for more than the first two weeks.

3. Lee DeWyze: Much like Casey, Lee has the cougar vote going for him, which will carry him into the Top 12 with ease. His performances so far have been good, but not great, a fact which he will need to change if he is going to last long beyond this week.

4. Aaron Kelly: SirMac might want to slit his wrists now, because this kid’s not going anywhere. Look, I get it. I can’t stand the whole “squeaky clean Disney tween pop” garbage either, particularly if it’s blended with country music (shudders). However, you can’t deny that it plays well with a large chunk of the “Idol” audience.

5. Tim Urban: Ugh. A poster on VFTW’s message board labeled Tim a modern-day Bobby Sherman, and while I think that this may be a bit of an insult (to Bobby Sherman), it’s pretty spot-on. Tim can’t sing to save his life, but he’s got the boy-crazy tween girl vote to carry him on for a few more weeks.

6. Alex Lambert: Alex always seems like he’s on the verge of giving us an epic train wreck, but he’s managed to make surprisingly smart song choices to this point. The dude has even got “Entertainment Weekly” to give him some love. Why shouldn’t it continue?

7. Andrew Garcia: To be blunt, Andrew is going to have to give us an amazing performance that won’t seem like a lame retread of his version of “Straight Up” in Hollywood. It’s a tough tightrope act that most people would have problems navigating, and I just don’t see him pulling it off.

8. Todrick Hall: Bye, Todrick. Simply put, his arrogance, lack of vocal talent and shady past will finally come back to bite him in the ass. Even VFTW doesn’t like this guy (they call him Fraudrick, for obvious reasons), so what chance does he have with the rest of us?

(TO BE CONTINUED)

But you could be totally right, since none of us are privy to the actual vote numbers.

And I am wondering if we see an early “favorite” exit this season – ie. Andrew.

But for that reason, I’m not sure Andrew Garcia is as safe as you feel he is. He needs to provide people with reasons to vote for him instead of for somebody else. He certainly didn’t do that last Tuesday night, IMHO. When he stood beside Jermaine on Thursday night, I’m not sure he wasn’t there based on the number of votes he got.