Every year I like to take a moment the day before the finals begin and really dig deep into some of these contestants. Talent, vocal ability, personality, and other artistic qualities that make a contestant a contender shed light onto where exactly we (as an addicted audience) stand at this point in the competition.

Usually the semi-finals are all about self-discovery and a radical shift in a predetermined outcome. We’ve watched Clay Aiken eliminated and then saved by a fantastic performance turning a season that would have been an easy stroll to the finish line by Ruben Studdard into a fierce neck and neck struggle to that final climactic evening. We’ve witnessed contestants, who had little to no chance, rally and make a name for themselves with one bold performance.

Take a moment and look back on American Idol history and imagine what fates might have been changed if your favorite had floundered in the semi-final rounds. Would Elliott Yamin have snagged the bronze without the exquisite “Moody’s Mood For Love?” Would David Cook even have had a chance against the young Archuleta without showing viewers just how well he could take a song and twist it as he had done with Lionel Ritchie’s “Hello?”

Every year we go into the semi-final rounds with a clear cut formulation of who would still be standing in a matter of weeks and who would be enjoying an uncomfortable coach seat on their plane ride home… and every year something unexpected happens. This year we had to sit and watch, miserably, as Katelyn, Lilly, and Alex were “Sabrina Sloaned” and now we have to dust off our slacks and reassess where we stand. Who are the frontrunners? Who even has a chance of taking the title?

Usually my articles are chocked full of satirical nonsense and pop-culture references aimed at eliciting a few groans and/or chuckles. They are a way of looking at this competition from a standpoint that encourages everyone not to take things so seriously, but I also write because I truly care about this program. Competition is such a fantastic sight to behold that it would make me ill not to comment on the ups and downs, the strengths and weaknesses, and the triumph and tragedy of these twelve contestants fighting tooth and nail for a foot in the door.

So, on a mildly more serious note, let’s take a look at these finalists and decide where they really stand. After all, we are about to embark on a twelve-week sprint to the finish line. Let’s take a deep breath before hand…

The Unknowns

There’s a dark horse… and then there’s a dead horse. Let me say this, if the following contestants don’t find someway of breaking through then they are dead on arrival. This is the bottom of the pack and the contestants who have not shown why they deserve to be anywhere near the Kodak Theatre. Hell, they haven’t even shown why they deserve to be on the tour. But, they’ve made it into the top 12 and they need to begin thinking of a strategy to change the game.

12. Paige Miles – Paige has a fantastic voice. Now, it’s not always the most dependable, but it’s definitely a strong instrument. That won’t matter next week if she goes out on that stage and performs like a ghost. Paige is invisible in this competition. She wasn’t shown until the live rounds and since then has barely been skimming by without making an attempt to display her musical identity. She casually chose songs that she enjoyed performing, but added not one iota of clarity to her individual character. “All Right Now” was passable, and then “Walk Away” made me believe she was trying to be this young female rocker, and then she delivered a horrid version of “Smile.” Why wouldn’t America be confused? Half the time it looks like Paige is confused! She’s a girl who never should have made it this far… not because of her talent, but because she was a complete and utter unknown who has yet to deliver a water cooler performance. So, how does she try to move forward? This week needs to be her “Custer’s’ Last Stand” moment. She needs to plant herself on that stage and decide once and for all who the hell she is because after that is done… well, she’ll be out of the woods.

11. Katie Stevens – Katie knows she doesn’t deserve to be a finalist. The look on her face and the tight-lipped qualities to her recent interviews only shows me just how nervous she is about the upcoming battle. Katie, unlike Paige, has an identity. She just hates it. Katie is an old soul and every time the judges ask her to be younger you can see the thought bubble above her head. This is a girl with a great voice, but with severe stylistic limitations that are making her come off as a pageantbot. In the semi-finals, Katie was going for a “Jordin Sparks” strategy. She wanted to quickly break away from the pack and solidify her fan base for a few weeks. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. “Feelin Good” was a mild success, but “Put Your Records On” and “Breakaway” were disasters that could have easily been avoided. Katie, the audience will forgive you for not singing “young songs.” They are smart enough to do that. But, they won’t forgive you for singing songs poorly. If Katie manages to get her act together she could easily win this competition. Now, the question is whether or not she has been broken by these past few weeks or whether she is able to pick herself up and go one more round.

10. Tim Urban – Vocally, Tim Urban is nowhere near as talented as Katie Stevens and Paige Miles. But, as we all know, that isn’t necessarily that important. Tim’s a good-looking guy with a “Leave It To Beaver” personality. His voice? It can be pleasant at times, but really Tim is a package artist. He’s moldable and could be transformed into a relevant singer with the right material. His first performance, “Apologize,” was a misstep. Then, he took the judges advice and began to construct an image with “C’mon Get Higher” and “Hallelujah.” Say what you want about young Tim Urban, but he is showing me just how well he can play the game. This is a player who was called off the bench a week before the big game and he is beginning to amass a small, but loyal, following. My advice for Tim? Keep it up. You won’t win this competition. It won’t happen. But your goal needs to be getting as far as you can!

The Underdogs

This is a category that I find incredibly interesting. Three contestants who have the capability to do really well in this competition, but for whatever reason, they have been uneven at best. We have seen sparks from each one that shows us how great they could be, but the pieces aren’t coming together. They are each one great performance away from the changing the face of this season. But, have they peaked?

9. Lacey Brown – Lacey has one of the most controlled voices I’ve ever heard, but then after Hollywood she sat on that stage and delivered an atrocious version of “Landslide.” It was the performance that instantly turned her into the “she’s still here?” contestant. A passable “Kiss Me” did very little to change this narrative, but miraculously she was allowed another week, and then something amazing happened. Lacey sat on the stage and delivered a very emotional appealing performance of “The Story” and suddenly we woke up the next morning pretty sure that Lacey would be a top 12 finalist. So, was this just a once in a lifetime moment or will the Lacey we knew from Hollywood return this week?

8. Aaron Kelly – This is a contestant who has spoken so very little on his own behalf I’ve forgotten what his speaking voice sounds like. That’s alright! He’s young, he’s shy, and he’s every grandmother’s dream! Every season we have a contestant who fills this role and this year we have young Aaron Kelly. The difference between Aaron and a lot of the other contestants is that Aaron has already locked down a huge base of votes. The country music voting block is large and powerful. Never once did I doubt Aaron’s ability to make it into the final weeks. “Here Comes Goodbye” was huge success on a night that most of the boys were too nervous to even sing in key. “My Girl” was more of an uneven song choice, and then “I’m Already There” was a vocal disaster. But, did it matter? No, because the country voters don’t effin care!! They wanted a representative in the top 12 and they have one. If Aaron can control his voice a little more than he could easily make the top 6 in this competition.

7. Andrew Garcia – Honestly, I never thought Andrew would have struggled like he has over the past couple of weeks. I knew last month that Andrew would be a top 12 contestant, but I assumed that his place would have been more assured and earned than Michael Lynche. I was dead wrong. Poor Andrew has had every one of his performances compared to “Straight Up.” Already the whispers are growing that Andrew has peaked and has nothing left to offer. This is a bit of win/lose situation. Sure, no one wants bad press, but perhaps this lowers the bar for Andrew’s next performance? Andrew has the capability of winning this competition, but he needs to rethink his strategy because the acoustic covers of female artists aren’t working anymore. I’d love to see Andrew put down the guitar and just sing a song; powerfully. If he can show the judges he isn’t a one trick performance than he could be right back in this thing. “Sugar We’re Going Down” was clever, but not memorable and “You Give Me Something” was the right idea, but the wrong song. Finally, his performance of “Genie In A Bottle” was just plain odd. This week needs to be his week or else he won’t be around for much longer.

The Contenders

These three contestants could all win this competition. They have proven that they deserve to be in the final rounds and are only one “wow” performance away from becoming a frontrunner. Barring any unfortunate collapse, I see each and every one of them on the summer tour.

6. Lee Dewyze – If Lee can get that “deer in the headlights” look off the front of his grill than he could have a real shot at this thing. Lee’s got a great advantage because his voice is so memorable. If I heard the television from across the room I would know right away who was singing and that gives him an identity. Lee hit the stage singing “Chasing Cars” was a very nice opening performance, especially on such a lackluster evening, but Lee really started getting buzz after he performed “Lips Of An Angel.” His post-pop/grunge vibe is an individual sound this year and he’s splitting votes with almost no one. When he finished “Fireflies” I felt very confident about Lee’s future prospects. He manages to pick popular modern songs that the audience relates to and in doing so has found a comfortable niche for himself on this program.

5. Didi Benami – Vocally, Didi Benami has been a very stable contestant. During the semi-finals we all saw how she seemed to be absolutely thrashed and beaten for a pretty decent performance. Perhaps it was the high expectations we all had? “The Way I Am” was a beautiful vocal, but didn’t really do anything to change the face of the competition and “Lean On Me” felt forced and uncomfortable. Luckily for Didi, and for us I might add, she blasted out a fantastic rendition of “Rhiannon” in the bottom of the ninth that earned her a space in the finals. If Didi can maintain her current momentum than it is incredibly possible that she come from behind and earn the gold. Her ability to emote and phrase these songs will be the true testament.

4. Casey James – “Heaven” made Casey James a contender. When he sat still and crooned out that classic vocal he endeared himself to America. People who couldn’t shut up about his vocal limitations had to keep quiet for a while, as Casey owned the rest of the men. “I Don’t Wanna Be” wasn’t as great, but we still couldn’t stop talking about his guitar skills. Hell, I couldn’t. Who doesn’t love a little face melting sometimes? Then, “You’ll Think Of Me” secured his position as a contender. If Casey can manage to change strategy over the next few weeks and latch claim to the country label he could do a lot of damage. If he can convince viewers that he is a more viable country star than Aaron Kelly, well, we could easily see our first male country winner. Now, is Casey a country singer? Does it matter? Isn’t the goal to win?!

The Frontrunners

Now we get to the three contestants who are best poised, at this moment, to win American Idol Season 9. Obviously I believe that this list will change, but at this moment the evidence points to these three contestants currently being in the best position. They are three very different singers and each win would be due to very different circumstances. Let’s take a look…

3. Michael Lynche – This was the surprise of the semi-finals. One month ago I would never have thought that Michael Lynche would be a frontrunner to win this competition. Hell, after his performance of “This Love” I never would have thought it either. But then, his strategy changed, and two amazing performances later (“This Is A Man’s World” and “This Woman’s Work”) he has changed the game. The girls need to watch out because Michael Lynche is becoming an R&B powerhouse.

2. Siobhan Magnus – Siobhan is becoming one of the most talked about contestants this season. After her performance of “Wicked Game” America began to take interested into this odd dark horse of a contestant. Vocally, Siobhan has the most powerful voice in the competition. Her range is indisputable and her vocals are in a different league from the rest of the girls. Did we know this coming in? Of course not! But then, out of nowhere, Siobhan sang “Think” and created a water cooler moment with the incredible note that seemed to come out of nowhere. “House of the Rising Sun” was also a strong performance with a beautiful acapella introduction. If Siobhan can clear up the confusion and make a connection with the audience by showing them exactly what type of artist she wants to be than Siobhan could be the next American Idol. My advice? Siobhan needs to make a stand and claim the mantle that Allison Iraheta owned last year. If Siobhan goes the pop-rock route than she might become this competitions first female rocker champion.

1. Crystal Bowersox – Every time I hear people talk about Crystal they all come to the same conclusion. “She is the best one there, but she won’t win because she is being pushed down our throats. Just like Adam Lambert!” Okay, well, I suppose that’s a fair point. Plenty of contestants who were pimped to the ends of the earth fell short, but plenty of others won. We all knew Fantasia Barrino would win season 3… and she did. Easily. So, I wouldn’t count Crystal out. After all, every single one of her semi-final performances (“Hand In My Pocket,” “As Long As I Can See The Light,” “Give Me One Reason”) garnered rave reviews and incredible support across America. She hasn’t had a bad moment yet and is in the best position to win American Idol. So, as long as Crystal maintains her momentum and doesn’t have to fight off Siobhan, Michael, or someone else from our list, than she is in a damn strong position to become our next American Idol.

So, that’s where I believe we stand. Now, of course everyone has a different outlook on the competition, but from what I’ve seen and from the patterns that often emerge, this is our present situation.

So, let’s look forward to the final twelve weeks and hope for some truly great Idol moments!

-NGH

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