Singer’s experience, style and musical versatility make him the easy front-runner.

 Nothing is for sure in the world of “American Idol.” Most years, there are a handful of strong contenders and the final vote is a real nail biter. Other years, such as season two when Ruben Studdard won, or last year’s battle of the Davids, it was pretty clear who was going to take the crown for quite a while before the final reveal.

It’s starting to feel that way this year as well. To be sure, there is strong competition among the remaining top seven. Teenager Allison Iraheta is proving week after week that she’s a force to be reckoned with, and Danny Gokey continues to be one of the strongest contenders for the crown. There are also consistent dark horses Kris Allen and Matt Giraud, who could leap to the top of the pile with a breakout performance.

But at this point, none of them hold a candle to Adam Lambert, the 28-year-old Los Angeles musical-theater actor who seems to be getting stronger by the week as he dazzles the audience and judges with his original style and risk-taking. The game is his to lose at this point, so we present you with a handful of reasons why Adam Lambert will probably be your next “American Idol.”

Experience
Lambert: When we first saw him step into the audition room to sing Queen’s “Bohemian Rhapsody” in San Diego in January, there was something about Lambert that marked him as different. That may have had to do with his 17 years of experience in front of audiences, performing everything from musical theater to outrageous 1970s-style glam funk at L.A.’s long-running live avant-garde performance showcase, the Zodiac Show.

Lambert has put in his time on many stages, beginning at age 10, playing Linus in “You’re A Good Man, Charlie Brown” at the Lyceum Theater in his hometown of San Diego. He’s gone on to impress as Joshua in a lavish 2004 musical production of “The Ten Commandments” at the Kodak Theatre in Los Angeles alongside Val Kilmer and had a recent gig as an understudy in a production of “Wicked.”

The others: Both Kris Allen and Danny Gokey have gained valuable experience learning songs on the fly and playing in front of a crowd as worship leaders in their respective churches and 16-year-old Allison Iraheta has been singing in front of audiences most of her life, in addition to taking the top prize on the 2006 Telemundo reality show “Quinceañera,” which landed her $50,000 and a recording contract. Matt Giraud has released a pair of independent albums and has put in time as a dueling piano player in Michigan clubs. Lil Rounds began singing when she was 3-years-old but lacks the performance experience of the other contenders, and Anoop Desai appeared on a children’s television show as a youngster and performed in an acclaimed a cappella group in college, but has not developed a unique identity as a performer yet.

Advantage: Lambert

Confidence
Lambert: The confident way he carries himself, looks the judges in the eyes when speaking to them and makes sure to humbly thank them for their compliments is likely a product of Lambert’s extensive audition experience. Even when telling Paula Abdul that her concert was the first one he ever attended, Lambert didn’t seem nervous or jittery making small talk with the judges during auditions. Only someone who was sure of himself would dare take a legendary song by Johnny Cash and perform it as a Middle Eastern call to prayer as Lambert did with “Ring of Fire” during country week.

The others: Gokey has a cool, calm demeanor that marks him as Lambert’s equal in the confidence department, but the others have shown signs of insecurity when judged harshly by the panel. Giraud also seems at ease with himself, though his struggle to develop a clear identity as a performer on the show has hamstrung him a bit. Iraheta, even when faced with criticism, has shown a preternaturally mature attitude. The judges have frequently counseled Allen to work on his confidence, and both Allen and Rounds were visibly shaken when given harsh notes on last week’s show. Desai has also seemed nervous when faced with criticism.

Advantage: Tie between Lambert and Gokey

Style
Lambert: This is hands-down Lambert’s biggest advantage. His constantly morphing, David Bowie-esque glam-rock-meets-emo sartorial taste — which involves doing something different with his shock of raven hair almost every week — has made Lambert stand out amid a group of less fashion-forward singers.

The others: When the judges have noticed the other singers’ clothes, it’s typically been to mock them.

Advantage: Lambert

Musicality
Lambert: From his snake-charming “Ring of Fire” to a glam-metal cover of the Rolling Stones’ “(I Can’t Get No) Satisfaction” and his standing-ovation-demanding remake of Tears for Fears’ “Mad World,” Lambert has shown a range than encompasses everything from musical theater to rock, pop, R&B, soul and emo. Judges have repeatedly praised his musical versatility and commercial prospects.

The others: None of the remaining half dozen have been able to bring as many different looks as Lambert, though Gokey has consistently been a solid performer and has not had any major off nights. Iraheta is a close second to Lambert in range, proving she can sing pop, country, blues, R&B and rock equally well.

Advantage: Lambert

 Read the rest of this MTV

Commentary

  1. suebrody wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    YES. :)

    DON’T FORGET TO VOTE

    BTW, it was NOT a sure thing that Cook was going to win last year. Archie was just as popular; it’s just that Cook’s supporters came out in full force after the performance show. It ain’t over till it’s over.

    ADAM FOR THE WIN

  2. Anod wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    What suebrody said!

    Vote people. Vote.

  3. Kilby wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    AMEN !!!

    I COULDN’T HAVE SUMMERIZED THAT ANY BETTER MYSELF…

    sorry, didn’t mean to yell !!

    Vote Americans…vote!!

  4. Janice wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    I agree with everything you said, except the comment about Ruben Studdard being expected to win in 2003. That was TOTALLY not the case – he BARELY SCRAPED BY to win over Clay, and we all know that Clay lost because of the crappy analog phone line system they had in place at the time (which is not the case now). Ruben won that year by only a reported small percentage of votes, and after it was analyzed it was determined that 9 million calls for Clay were dropped due to the inadequacies of the technology and the phone system being constantly busy. Clay would have killed him with today’s voting system.

    That being said – ADAM FOR THE WIN!!!

  5. Angelbones wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Article was certainly spot on. However, Adam will not be the next American Idol if people become complacent and not vote for him. Think of Chris Daughtry, Michael Johns and Jennifer Hudson. We don’t want that ill fate to happen to Adam.

  6. correction wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    I’m pretty sure NO! his not gonna win this season, maybe Kris or Allison are gonna win this AI season 8. crossed fingers!

  7. Doug wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    It is already over. Adam has already won in my book.

  8. bumpy wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Now THIS is a well-written article, with clear thoughtful points – very nice!!! and I agree totally.

  9. Tammy wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    I put in approx 200-300 votes for Adam every single week. I’m not taking any chances and don’t want him to lose and then blame myself for it happening. I’m so afraid that the rest of his fans will get complacent and not vote just because they think he’s got it in the bag!! Nothing is a sure bet and just because he’s popular, doesn’t mean he’s going to win. This is why all of us Adam Lambert fans have to vote vote vote for Adam only…until our fingers bleed!!

  10. Anod wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Hola, correction. That would be he is, not his, as in it is his to lose. hugz ;-) gonna let ‘gonna’ slide cuz I like that one.

  11. dh wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    There’s only one situation in which I’d vote for Adam; that’s if it were him and Gokey in the final. Otherwise, I’m voting for Kris and Allison.

  12. Anod wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Several hundred votes right here for bleeding fingers!
    NO splitting.

    (Doug), I know, but we have to go through the next weeks. Uhg.

    Truly, counting the seconds till a ‘live Adam Lambert without the others’ show.

    I’m so mean.

  13. suebrody wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Tammy, ITA. No one should assume Adam will win, whether or not he *should*. I have been advocating voting for him over the past few weeks. I want Matt, Kris, and Allison in the final four, absolutely, but at this point, I need to vote for the contestant (Adam) I want to win. Everyone should do the same.

    Very true re: Clay. But I think cellphones and texts will make the difference this year. And I do think Idol wants Adam to win, given the publicity he has generated, if nothing else. Even with Cook last year, the formula was becoming stale, Kara hasn’t helped at all, Top 36 was a bad idea (Ricky Braddy, anyone?!), and the judges’ save is a farce. Idol was lucky to get Adam; in fact, despite others’ talents see above), there wasn’t much buzz until Top 13. And the Adam v Danny finale has pretty much bitten the dust. It’s no longer about the pimping.

    DON’T FORGET TO VOTE

  14. satchel wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Adam will win by a the biggest margin ever.

  15. Doug wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Im not saying i wont vote my fat fingers off for Adam!

    To me he is already a winner big time!

  16. Anod wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    satchel, from your lips… :-)

    Out and about for awhile…Adam FTW!!!!!!

  17. Freidag wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Wow! Reading some of these voting numbers I realize I have not been doing my part! Expect me to vote at least 300 times for Adam tonight. I better start flexing my fingers now!

    The Amazingly Talented Adam Lambert for the win!

  18. suebrody wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    New idolatry from our friends at ew.com. Hysterical, as always. They are HUGE Allison friends, so FOA (friends of Allison), check it OUT. (They work it OUT: HNN, PTFM, Top 9.) I love the way they rag on Kara, b/c, frankly, she deserves it.

    They haven’t said that she will win, but I think they are hoping for an Adam/Allison finale (they came around, slowly, to Adam, but they are there now). Of course, I am good with Kris or Matt there as well..

    And their caller slipped in a “Put the GO in Gokey,” I couldn’t help smiling.

    ADAM FOR THE WIN

  19. sneezepaddle wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    I work in an airport, and everyone today just kept saying…’oh he’s already won’ or ‘there’s no competition.’ Folks that is the epitome of complacency! Please vote until you pass out. Rest assured Gokey’s Bible thumping queer hating fanatics will be organized.

  20. suebrody wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    NOOOOO
    NOOOOO
    NOOOOO

    He has not won yet! No matter what TPTB would have you believe, HNN has in no way taken the crown yet.

    sneezepaddle, you sound as bad as the VFTW fanatics. LOL Only you understand the awesomeness that is Adam and when any of them admit it they get labeled a “fantard” and are told to leave the site. They think they are funny; I think otherwise.

    DON’T FORGET TO VOTE
    ADAM FOR THE WIN

  21. katri wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Re Clay: yeah, I watched some of it back and methinks Ruben won because people see him as this adorable guy. But he’s okay. I like Clay more but hey, he’s doing fine now too.

  22. J wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Does it cost to vote?
    I live in the UK… I don’t think many people vote more than 10-20 times for X-factor cos the cost builds up!

  23. suebrody wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    No, J, it’s free from land lines (or cell phones, or wherever you have free 1-866 toll free calling). You DO have to pay for texting. I only have 200/month, and it’s even easier to call on my iPhone (which you KNOW Idol loves, since it’s AT&T). So that’s why we can literally call 100x (I probably called 250 or more for Cook last year, when we had 4 hours to vote). Of course, this skews the number of viewers compared to the number of votes. So when you hear that there were more than 27 million votes, and only 24 million viewers, you can see the number of times the *dedicated* fans vote. :)

    ADAM FOR THE WIN

  24. JH wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    I don’t get the Adam love…. but I just don’t love the falsetto stuff he does. Is he “technical”ly the best sing… probably…. but I just wouldn’t run out and buy his album. And for the record, his version of Mad World…. totally Gary Jules version from Donnie Darko. Just like David Cook didn’t do an “original” version of Billie Jean. Best example of turning a song around thus far in my book…. David Cook doing “Always Be My Baby” during Mariah week :)

  25. sneezepaddle wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    I can’t wait to purchase my first Adam CD and concert tickets! Hell Yeah!

  26. suebrody wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    I agree that Cook’s Always Be My Baby was possibly the most original interpretation that we’d ever seen on Idol (and my 2nd favorite Cook performance–he did it with First Time Ever I Saw Your Face and it was stunning), but remember, this is not a show about vocal interpretation, it’s about vocal prowess. Adam clearly changed up ToMT; I don’t think that can be debated. I believe he is the best and most original singer this year. That’s why I’m on his bandwagon.

    And now I am going to get real. Feel free to disagree.

    There is an interesting article about who Idol voters are and how Idol probably rigs the votes (including the Ruben v Clay outcome), and it includes a video on msnbc from a few years ago:

    http://gawker.com/5211909/the-5-types-of-american-idol-watchers

    Tom from VFTW is on there. My opinion: Idol definitely picks the best and the worst to showcase. This season: Allison, Kris, Alexis, Matt, and of course Adam are in the best category (you can debate Anoop, Scott, and especially Danny all you want). Tatiana, Megan, Michael, Normund, though HYSTERICAL, Jasmine, Jorge, Lil, and don’t forget Bikini Girl were in the worst but interesting TV category. It IS a reality TV show. They definitely want a melting pot, which is why Jasmine and Jorge were chosen over Ricky, Jesse, and others and why you got an oil rigger and a visually impaired, classically trained pianist in the Top 10. That said, the best usually come out on top (e.g, Kelly, Carrie, Cook) and the worst do not. And the Daughtrys do extremely well despite the results.

    Will Adam win? It depends on two things:

    How many viewers vote for him, and:

    How profitable 19 thinks he will be for the company. Why do you think there is so much pimping? They wanted Lil as the next JHud; no go. They probably want Gorky as a Christian recording star, and he may be but it’s not likely he will win. They want Allison to be the next Pink. They want Kris and Matt to be the Jason Mraz/JT/Gavin DeGraw/John Mayer. Whether this happens remains to be seen.

    I am not sure 19 knowx what to do about Adam, however. I think they want him to be BoW, and then he hits them with RoF and Simon is not pleased. He comes back with ToMT and Simon is jumping for joy, and then we get PTFM and again Simon isn’t happy but it is probably too late by that point(and he weeps for joy with MW, even if Idol idiotically went over the 2 hour time limit). But he may not get to make the final call, so to speak, this time. Nonetheless, TPTB must be tripping all over themselves b/c of the attention HNN’s brought the show, since it was losing viewers weekly.

    With all of that said, if you don’t vote, your contestant WILL NOT WIN.

    End of commentary. Opposing points of view welcome, of course.

  27. suebrody wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Well, now…an article on Life After Idol, courtesy of mj’s blog:

    http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1609202/20090414/story.jhtml

    If Adam wants to go back to musical theater–in this case, Broadway–the door is open…I’d love to see him back there, to be honest. Nothing beats Brigadoon or Is Anybody Listening, IMO.

  28. JH wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    You wanna talk prowess? Alex Wagner Trugman!

    If the judges are always talking about “making the song your own,” I will agree that Adam has that in spades. Actually I think Kris and Allison has done a pretty good job of defining themselves as an artist too…. Lil, Anoop and Danny really lack the individuality the others have. Lil has been copycat since day one…. Anoop (while I do like him) has given some very generic performances and Gokey is every Contemporary Christian male artist on the radio today…. which might be why they love him. I like Danny’s voice a lot, but again not doing anything mind blowing in my opinion.

    That being said… I guess I’m all for Allison or Kris. I just can’t hop on the Adam love train… and I’m all about supporting my gay fam, and when/if he wins…. it will be deserved, just not my favorite. He’s an excellent talent.

  29. Anod wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    TPTB at 19 would be CRAZY to lose Adam. He can be a world wide star. He has that appeal. I would so travel to see him. He is The next ADAM….No one like him. That is priceless.

  30. suebrody wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    I completely agree, Anod. He has fans from teenagers to senior citizens. As much as I love Cook, his fan base is not as diverse. I will buy Adam’s CD, but I would go to one of his shows in a heartbeat. And who changes it up as much each week? He would bring anything and everything to a live show, and he has the breadth to do so and that is what makes him so exciting.

    DON’T FORGET TO VOTE

  31. Anod wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Oh, and I would soooooooo go and see Adam on Broadway! I think he could do a one man show. Fuhgedabout what’s already in production. I do want back up dancers, though, that really works. IMO

    ADAM FTW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  32. kacey wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    In response to Janice’s defensive comment regarding Reuben Studdard barely beating Clay Aiken….ummmm…please know…Reuben totally won AI2 fair and square…i am from his hometown and he had more support than Taylor or Bo Bice coming out of here….Everybody loved Ruuuu….oh…except the Claymates…still bitter after all this time?…lol

  33. sayonara wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Listen to HNN’s reflections (including criticisms) of his performances so far here:

    http://www.hollywoodoutbreak.com/2009/04/14/adam-lambert-channels-his-inner-simon/

  34. Anod wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    How cute is he???? TY sayonara! And my love for him is organic. Besos.

    Ok out again for a bit.

  35. bridgeymah wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Morning all good to see we are all up and at it :-) Must say pretty much agree with the article with exception of Gokey Pokey draw section I think there is a difference between confidence and arrogance although they are often mistaken for each other.

    VOTE EARLY. VOTE OFTEN and vote for those of us who are overseas and can’t!

  36. bridgeymah wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Oh and where the hell are all the spoilers?

    VOTE EARLY. VOTE OFTEN and vote for those of us who are overseas and can’t!

  37. jstar wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Just heard that Kris Allen is singing Glen Hansard’s “Falling Slowly” from the movie Once. I hope he puts himself back as a rival contender against Adam. Can’t wait to see if he gets pimp spot tonight! It’s one of my favorite songs and I know he will knock it out of the park.

  38. suebrody wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    Thanks for the link, sayonara! Except for BoW, which he said he rehearsed to “get it just right,” I completely believe him. He lets the song take him where it takes him. That’s part of his appeal.

    Oh, and I hope I didn’t sound too cynical before (I bet I did). I just think that Simon is so money-hungry (okay, we know he is) that he will do whatever he needs to take to get the most profitable contestants out there. And he has that with Adam, which I think stunned the hell out of him, but booyah for Adam’s persistence. Randy and Paula got it, at least, right from the start.

    Am I the only one who wants Adam to go emo this week, ala Pixies, Depeche Mode, etc.? I am beginning to think I am. I am seeing a lot of Rocky Horror Picture Show and Saturday Night Fever suggestions and I’m like, NOOOO. No glam, Adam? Rocker, sure. Emo? You bet. But don’t go outlandish, for the love of God. Nail it this week and the competition might be yours.

    DON’T FORGET TO VOTE

  39. Jason wrote on 14. Apr 2009

    I hope Adam wins, I want him to sing something acapella, a ballad and have a moment kind of like what Bo Bice had in Season 4.

  1. Will Adam Lambert Win ‘American Idol’? // Joe’s Place Blog | American Idol Latest From The Web on 14. Apr 2009