One of our Posters, Matthew, sent me his opinion on the first group of 12 to perform for our votes.  I thought it would be great to share Matthew’s take. 

Here ya go:

The First Group – Who Will Make It Through To The Top Twelve?

Commentary by Matthew Chisling

 

                   

 

                       

            Well, this is it. We finally have our top 36 ladies and gentlemen. American Idol has, after weeks of agonizing auditions and impressive performances, given us one of the more trendy and diverse groups of 36 that the show has ever seen; While this isn’t my favorite top 30-ish-number to date, it is certainly one that is appealing to a variety of viewers.

 

            Having said that, in the last moments of this week’s Wednesday episode, the first group of twelve performers was revealed. For those of you who are still not yet familiar with the lowdown on this season’s semifinals, here’s how the finalist selection process works: Each week, the guy with the most votes and the girl with the most votes are put through to the next round. At the same time, the individual with the third highest amount of votes, either male or female, will also make the top 12. This happens for three weeks, and in the fourth week three other finalists are chosen as Wildcards by the judges.

 

            What this means is that while the whole group you are performing against matters, contestants need to make sure more than anything that they stand out from their gender.

 

            This little commentary is going to look at which of the twelve semifinalists in group one have a shot at making it through to the top 12 this season. Having said that, let’s take a closer look at both the men and the women, to see which ones are going to be the lucky chosen ones. Of course, this may all change after we’ve seen them perform once again, but regardless, here’s my predictions as to who will make it through to the next round:

 

            The ladies

 

This week, I am taking a look at the ladies first for one reason; in my honest opinion, only one of them will make it through this week. I prefer the ladies on Idol generally, but in this group, all six men are incredibly strong vocalists, and the chances that the ladies have up against them is rough. The six ladies singing in group one are Casey Carlson, Jackie Tohn, Ann Marie Boskovitch, Alexis Grace, Stevie Wright and Tatiana Del Toro. Let’s see how this group of ladies breaks down:

 

            Of the six, I think it’s clear which ladies will not make it for sure. All six girls in this group have had airtime, but at the same time, it hasn’t necessarily been positive, or lengthy. In my opinion, of the six, the one with the least chance of making it has to be Stevie Wright. I personally quite like Stevie, but she’s a talented, soft spoken sixteen year old, and for me, when compared to a bunch of bright personalities that we see in this group, her chances are quite slim. Alexis Grace is in a similar position. She’s quite a good vocalist, but she simply isn’t one that has stood out tremendously in Hollywood. If she delivers a truly WOW-ing performance, I wouldn’t be surprised if she snuck into the top twelve, but at the same time, there hasn’t been much in her body of work that has truly shimmered, except for her audition. Ann Marie Boskovitch isn’t much different from either of these two cases. She’s had plenty of airtime since the show started, and she has one of the most beautiful, understated voices in this entire group of ladies, if not the entire group of eighteen ladies. However, her personality simply hasn’t shined. Ann Marie may have had a shot if the elimination process was more similar to recently passed seasons (in a similar situation to Lindsay Cardinale from season four), however where you need to be voted into the top twelve, not out of the top sixteen, Ann Marie’s chances do not look great. If she made it, however, I would pleasantly surprised. There is a long shot left in this group, and her name is Tatiana Del Toro. Look, when push comes to shove, Tatiana is not a bad vocalist. She’s delivered some quite impressive vocal performances in the past. Unfortunately, she has been painted to be a joke, which, quite frankly, I cant help but laugh at. Her theatrics are simply unreal, and I know that she has turned off ten times more people than she has turned on because of her attitude outside her singing. If for whatever reason, people are looking for a laugh, she may squeak into the top twelve, but I highly doubt it, she’s simply too dramatic for the mass to enjoy her, and I think her time on Idol will be finished when next Wednesday night rolls around.

 

 

            That leaves two girls fighting for the spot for the ladies. The first that we will look at is Casey Carlson. Casey does have several things going for her. She’s, objectively, the most beautiful woman this season, and her image is definitely the one that garners the most attention on the women’s side. While American Idol is not a competition about looks, it’s still one that can be persuaded by a pretty face (Haley Scarnato anyone?). However, in addition to this, Casey is quite a good vocalist, although her performances in Hollywood were not some of the best. To me, Casey is a “better” version of Ann Marie in terms of what a finalist should be, and her good voice, when paired with a good song, could be more than enough to give her the votes to earn her a spot in the top twelve.  The other contestant that we have to look at as a contender for the spot is Jackie Tohn. Jackie has certainly been a judge’s favorite, and in my opinion, for good reason. Jackie is one of the most intriguing female finalists, and her endearing, vivacious personality is quite the plus. She’s cute, and her antics on the show have been quite entertaining. On top of it, she’s quite the unique vocalist, but her performances have been for the most part quite excellent. My only concern with Jackie is that she may pick an odd song choice that is unknown to viewers.

 

            So who makes it through? For me, any of the girls in this group, if they were to deliver a performance that was clearly miles above the rest, could make it, but odds are on Casey or Jackie. Since I have to pick one, I will actually go with Jackie, as she is the most well-rounded contestant, in addition to being quite unique.

 

            The Boys

 

            Wow, are the boys stacked this week! With six guys singing this week, Stephen Fowler, Ricky Braddy, Brent Keith, Michael Sarver, Danny Gokey and Anoop Desai, I would be upset to, quite frankly, see any of them go! This is a truly talented mix, and because they are all so talented (more so than the girls), I would expect to see two of them go through this week.

 

            In my opinion, one of those spots in nearly locked for Danny Gokey. I, personally, am not his biggest fan, but I expect to see him make the top twelve this time around because of his unique, soulful voice, his trying backstory, and all the (positive) airtime he’s received. Danny is one of the few contestants who has been featured in almost every possible episode. If I had to put a dollar down on any contestant making the top twelve out of this group, it would be Danny.

 

            So for me, that leaves five guys fighting for another spot in the top twelve. Of course, there is a chance that two girls will stand out and one will steal the third spot (like Ann Marie or Casey), but for argument’s sake, let’s see which guy has the best shot. Of the five, I think Brent Keith and Ricky Braddy have the slightest chances. Ricky has had no airtime up to this point, but Paula has been championing him relentlessly in recent interviews. And, since I am an avid Idol fan, I’ve been listening to former recordings of some of the contestants (side note: Go check out Mishavonna Henson’s Myspace, and download her single [free] before she is forced to take it down. It’s quite excellent!) and what I’ve heard from Ricky has been truly incredible. The only way this guy has a chance of making it is if his performance is the single best one of the guys; if anyone outshines him, I think his time will be cut quite short. Brent Keith hasn’t had much airtime either. We saw a glimpse of his audition, and it was quite good, but he hasn’t been featured since, and he didn’t strike me as a true personality. For that, I will go ahead and assume that neither’s performance will be the best of the group, and neither will cinch a spot in the twelve.

 

            Of the three remaining guys, I think it’s anyone’s game. Michael Sarver, our favorite southern dad, will be up against some tough competition, since his voice has been not necessarily incredible up to this point. He will probably snag the country vote if he plays his cards right, but I think Michael’s group is simply too strong to earn a spot. Stephen Fowler has had a bunch of airtime on the show, and from what I read on the internet, he was the highlight of the first day of Hollywood week in the public’s eye. However since then, his final performance in Hollywood has tarnished his reputation. For me, this guy has quite a good voice, but with little personality to support it. I think Stephen has a tough road ahead of him in this group of twelve. Finally, we have Anoop Desai. I think Anoop is quite an impressive singer, and on top of it, he’s charming, funny, cute, and personable. In this group of guys, men who have good voices and lackluster personalities, Anoop’s endearing persona may be the weapon that earns him a spot in the top twelve. He may pull out an atrocious song and mess it up, allowing for someone else to take the third spot, but in my opinion, this is the other guy who will see the glory of the top twelve on his first try.

 

            So there we have it. Looking at this group of twelve, I think this is the most competitive group we’ve seen, with so many talented, publicized singers to pick from, I wouldn’t be shocked to see anyone make the twelve, but with any group making it, I would be sad to see most of the other nine go home. With that, the three I would like to see most in the top twelve myself would be Ricky Braddy, Jackie Tohn and Ann Marie Boskovitch, the three you should expect to see make the top twelve will be Danny Gokey, Jackie Tohn, and Anoop Desai. Anything may change after the performances though, so make sure to check back and vote for your favorites when all the contestants sing their heart out!

 

            What do you think? Let me know! J

 

 

 

 

 

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