Who’s got the best shot at making it into the top 12 this week?
Oh, I STILL cannot STAND this new format. Last week showed us that we will be losing so many potential great contestants during the semi-finals. If this was last year’s format – no one would remember who David Cook was. Also, during the semi’s normally fans can vote fo more than one contetant, but with only 3 advancing, I wouldn’t recommend vote splitting at all. Anyway…
Here’s my take on how I think the votes will fall for our Second group of 12. Remember, this is only my opinion. I would love to hear yours. I’m listing #6 to #1 for the boys and for the girls:
The Girls
#6
Jeanine Vailes
With even less face time than Ricky Braddy going into the finals, the only way Jeanine might stand a chance is if she comes out and sings “California Girls” in a Bikini. Sorry, Jeanine, AI has no plans of letting you into the top 12. Sadly, she is fodder, plain and simple.
#5
Jesse Langseth
Even without showing her audition – and just about 5 seconds in Hollywood, Jesse may have had a chance to advance if TMZ hadn’t broken the news of Jesse’s arrest for DUI. Middle America won’t like it. With little face time and bad press, Jesse will not be our American Idol.
#4
Allison Iraheta
Allison looks like a perfect Pop star. She seems to have an unusual personality, which should make her stand out as well. However, she has no hint of a dramatic back story so far. She will be another contestant that doesn’t make it because AI decided to pimp another.
#3 
Mishavonna Henson
Mishavonna has a very different voice from the other ladies performing tonight. Granted, she has had almost no screen time, but does have a fan base from making it to Hollywood in American Idol 7. If she can pick the right song, she has a pretty good chance to come close to the top spot.
#2 
Megan Corkery
Megan is the divorced mom of 2 and she’s got a cool jazzy voice. While she may be a little too “old school” to be a pop star today, her audition got people talking. Simon loves her, so I expect good comments from him – which does help (Michael Sarver). If she “knocks it out of he park” on Wednesday, she has a great chance at the top 12.
#1
Jasmine Murray
Jasmine has had plenty of screen time and she’s got a great look and voice. She’s the kind of contestant that 19E would love to market. If she can let her personality really shine through on Wednesday, she will be the top female vote getter.
THE GUYS
#6
Kris Allen
Kris is another contestant that will not advance due to lack of screen time. It’s a shame, because he’s got a great voice and he is cute as heck. But with “more popular cute guys” in his group, he has almost no chance to advance.
# 5 
Matt Bretizke
Matt has had plenty of back story – and the best type of story arc to have – the heartwarming, blue collar worker wanting the best for his family. However, with Michael Sarver already planted firmly in the top 12, the last thing Idol wants is two blue collar guys in the top 12.
#4.
Kai Kalama
Kai had a GREAT first round audition package, and his sound seems to be different from other guys in this group. He has had almost no “buzz” surrounding him so far. Where he places is going to depend on judges comments and song choice. I just cannot see him advancing with other guys much more popular performing tonight.
#3. 
Nick Mitchell
Oh, how I love Nick Mitchell (a.k.a. Normund Gentle). He is like a breath of fresh air for me. He auditioned on a fluke, just hoping for some screen time at his initial audition and much to his surprise (and to the viewers) he kept advancing. I am placing him third because his performance WILL BE the one that most people will be talking about. If he can come out and sing in perfect tune AND give the viewers what they want – Normund Gentle – then he MAY be the third highest vote getter. Come on Nick!
#2. 
Matt Giraud
Matt has had plenty of screen time. He has developed a rather large following and the judges really seem to like him. He is a true musician and I am hoping that he can make it past the semi’s so we really get to see him shine on his piano. That there are no instruments allowed in the semi’s is the only problem that I see for Matt. He shine’s behind his piano. Can he shine without it?
#1
Adam Lambert
That I placed Adam in the top spot should come as no surprise to anyone. Adam is who I really believe is the TRUE TCO of the season. The reason that they haven’t bombarded us with a sad/heartwarming back story is they don’t want to run the risk of a back lash with Adam. They want his voice to stand for itself. The judges will lavish praise on him big time, and he has the highest odds of getting the pimp spot. They want this guy in the finals. He will get there for sure, but how he comes across to America will be the deciding factor on where in the finals he places. Us blogger’s know how “out there” Adam is (That’s one reason I am a huge fan), but if he does really put himself out there, how will middle America handle Adam?
Well, that’s my take for the week? I would love to hear your take! Post away.
I really think Kris Allen should be ranked higher than 6th! Honestly he is waaaay more marketable that Matt B, so he will almost definitley get more votes than him on looks and having a more current sound alone. I think America is in for a surprise. : )
By the way… I don’t think a contestant should get through on looks, I’m just saying he has the teeanage girl appeal… I also think he is far more talented than Chi and Matt B… from what Ive heard on youtube at least!
GIRLS
6-Jeanine
5-Jesse
4-Mishavonna
3-Allison
2-Megan
1-Jasmine
GUYS
6-Kris
5-Matt
4-Kai
3-Norman
2-Matt
1-Adam
I pretty much agree with all your decisions, Joes.
You’re right. They shouldn’t…but they do.
I hope he is higher. I just love him. BUT, it doesnt appear that he is in AI’s top 12 plan.
i agree with the rankings of the guys but i think jasmine murray will be in the wild card and megan corkrey will advance to the top 12. ^_^
I agree with Cassandra. I am a BIG fan of Adam Lambert in particular, have been since the first time he auditioned, and I can see him going Top 5. He is very out there but with a great voice and tremendous confidence. It’s cool to see. I like Matt G, too (and am afraid that if he doesn’t go though, that Ricky in particular and Anoop might not get two of the three slots, b/c Matt will get one of them). I think they want Jasmine to go through, but I have the feeling Megan will beat her out and Jasmine will end up as a wild car (lots of Jordin Sparks in her). I really hope that Matt B does NOT go through, b/c though I thought Michael was decent, Matt B is not very good (nice guy, mediocre singer at best) We already had our Michael v Matt sing off. Let’s leave it at that. I would like to see Nick do a serious song, but would that work for him? I don’t know.
The only thing I would switch around with the girls is Mishavonna and Allison, with Allison being a spot higher. Although I think Jasmine will get the top girl’s spot, I would love to see Megan or Allison surprise everyone and get it, if not, I’d look to see them both in the WC round.
I would also put Kris Allen ahead of Kai and Matt B. I would be shocked if Adam doesn’t claim the top guys spot for the night, and I’m hoping Matt G. gets the other spot. However, if Matt G. doesn’t claim a Top 12 spot on Thursday, he’ll definitely get a WC round spot.
If that happens, we have two WC spots going to Anoop and Matt G….which leaves one spot open for a girl.
Well, I plan to vote for Matt G and Adam (well, if the lines are as busy for Adam as they were for Danny last week, I don’t have to worry about) tomorrow night. I want him to get the 3rd spot and I want Anoop and Ricky go go into the wild card. But who predicted Michael would take the 3rd spot last week? I’m still in shock over that one. I’ll have to see on the girls. I just wasn’t enthralled with Jasmine, who seemed like a lot of young, pretty girls with pretty voices. I like someone like Alexis, who stands out with her voice and her personality.
You know, I still don’t think Adam is TCO. As you just said, he is too much “out there” and middle America won’t like that in the end.
I admire Adam for not being afraid is not afraid to show who he really is ( we all know he is gay, heh) but would the show producers want a gay idol?
We will see. I think he is talented, but I still think he is meant to be on a theater stage. He is not a recording artist at all.
Matt G could be the underdog this season. I think the producers like him somewhat, but I am not sure they want him to win. (Leave that to Danny). But Matt is definitely Top 3 material.
MAtt is obviously not TCO because if that was the case they would have let him play the piano during semis.What a shame. I hope Matt can crack the Top 12.
He clearly is one of the most talented guys musically and artistry. I can really see him as a relevant recording artist.
I have a feeling he can still shine without the piano.
I didn’t hear of Jesse Langseth’s DUI, so I doubt many did either. I don’t think she’d make the top 3 anyway.
Megan Corkrey will get the most female votes. She’s unique, likable, and has gotten a fair amount of face time already.
Norman Gentle’s toast. There’s no top 3 cranny for him to sneak into, this group’s too good to allow for a bum slot.
I think the top 3 will be 2 guys + 1 girl again. I’d say Adam Lambert (1st male), Megan Corkrey (1st female), and Matt Giraud (3rd).
It’s hard to say who will be Wild Card contenders, almost all of them are viable. If I had to guess, Kai Kalama, Kris Allen, Jasmine Murray, Allison Iraheta. And, depending whether the judges tire of him or not, Norman Gentle. I think the majority of Wild Card contenders will be from this group.
You can’t dismiss Jeanine Vailles either just cause she got 0 face time, she could pull a Ricky Braddy and be amazing, but who knows.
I agree with you, Joes, except when it comes to Kris Allen. I want him to be ranked higher, but I doubt it will be enough to crack the Top 12. :/
But Matt Giraud is who is getting ALL my votes Wednesday. I can’t wait to hear this guy perform…he is the relevant recording artist AI needs to get back it’s credibility.
I think kris will surprise everyone! I also think based on a lot of the forums and stuff, that even though I don’t think he’ll be in the top 3, I think he’s got a great shot at making the 4th highest vote and being a WC. Just my thoughts though. Arkansans are very loyal when it comes to people from here.
What are you thinking? Kris is more marketable and current than others. This is based on no air time ….. That is so unfair. You would think a forum like this would appreciate talent like this. No other forum is putting Kris last.
I think you are pretty much right on with your assessment, JP, especially the TCO…
I have loved Adam Lambert since he first opened his mouth to sing, his confidence and maturity are just as appealing as his wonderful voice. However, I thought his marketability to middle America was dubious and he was more about theatre than recording artist as well.
Aside from the audition, Simon has shown a liking for Adam–thumbs up after “Believe” etc, and stated Adam had the makings of a good recording artist–Helloo!! TCO?! –Simon is all about a marketable recording artist.
I know how over the top Adam is (and I so love you for it, Adam!) and thought Simon might be a little delusional about…recording artist…until I heard this song—I’d trample the masses to buy this recording–in a shot!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi8_Xnq7c1s
I disagree with everyone about Megan Corkrey. Where are you all even getting this? She’s had very little face time and she just reminds me of another Casey Carlson – a pretty girl who will crack under pressure. Also, Kai is not that great of a singer – his last performance in Hollywood was bad. Can’t see him knocking one out of the park this week.
Really, to make it through, you’ve got to knock it way out of the park. After all of last week’s surprisingly horrible song choices and poor performances, I can’t predict anything – I mean, what if Jasmine comes out singing Whitney?! Except I do agree that Adam is, indeed, TCO and will make it through this round.
I like Adam. He’s hot, has star quality and can sing. I mean, he can really sing. Hope you’re right that he goes through. *crossing fingers, knocking wood*
I think Megan Corkrey could get the middle America vote, how Michael Sarver got through. If she plays her cards right with the right song. That, and I remember Jasmine Murray being good, but not blow away great. She’s not quite a fan favorite like Gokey, so she’s susceptible to Megan.
Kris Allen has little to no chance of getting through because he, like Ricky Braddy, got ~0 camera time. You’d have to give a HUGE first impression in his situation to get into the top 3; Ricky sung amazingly, was probably the best of the night, and even he didn’t make it. Fortunately, Kris and Ricky will most definitely be Wild Cards.
Hey idolwiki, thanks for posting that link to Adam’s song on youtube. Holy cow, that was incredible, I got goose bumps. I was already sold on him after the videos of “I Can’t Make You Love Me” and “Crawl Thru Fire”, and that one you just linked sealed the deal!
6. Jeanine Vailes (What if Jeanine nails a version of Listen by Beyonce I still doubt it will help her since she has had no screen time.)
5. Jesse Langseth
4. Mishavonna Henson
3. Allison Iraheta
2. Megan Corkrey
1. Jasmine Murray
6. Kai Kalama
5. Matt Breitzke
4. Nick Mitchell
3. Kris Allen
2. Matt Giraud
1. Adam Lambert
Sorry totally disagree about Kris, all the young girls will vote for him and he has a really good voice so he is definately should be ranked higher than Kai and Matt. I mean I doubt the same folks who voted for Michael will vote for Matt but who knows, and I don’t think Kai will have a strong enough fan base. Nick Mitchell is the tricky one though! He might be third.
And personally it’s not about singing this year as Ricky should have made it last week over Michael and Danny. Sorry not a Danny fan, don’t appreciate how he’s using his wife for votes.
agree with Jason.
can’t believe Idol promised more ’singing’ this year. yet what we’ve seen are all drama! still they will enver win an oscar. lol
My predictions:
Guy: Adam
Girl: Megan
3rd: Nick
Wildcards: Kai, Matt, Jasmine
Adam is amazing! He better be the top male. I hope he makes it to the end! He’s so unique – he already seems like a star.